Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: July 31, 2026

U.S. equity index futures are pointing to a moderately positive open this Friday, as investors continue to digest a fresh batch of corporate earnings and keep an eye on evolving macroeconomic signals. The S&P 500 futures are indicating gains, building on Thursday's robust performance.

Pre-Market Tone: Cautiously Optimistic

The pre-market tone is one of cautious optimism. Following a week marked by significant corporate earnings reports, market participants appear to be leaning towards a "risk-on" sentiment as the trading week concludes. However, underlying concerns regarding inflation and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance continue to temper enthusiasm. Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are also contributing to a degree of market caution.

US Index Futures: A Look Ahead

US500 futures rose to 7478 points today, marking a 0.55% gain from the previous session. The S&P 500 futures are up by 0.4%, while Nasdaq 100 futures have gained 0.8%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are showing a 0.3% increase. This follows a strong showing on Thursday, where the S&P 500 rallied 1.7%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.2%, and the Nasdaq composite jumped 2.8%. The US10-year Treasury yield is also set for a weekly fall, while the Dollar is heading for a sharp weekly loss.

Top Movers in Focus: Earnings Driving Action

Several individual stocks are seeing notable pre-market activity, largely driven by their latest earnings reports:

• Microsoft (MSFT): The tech giant surged by 8.4% in pre-open trading after delivering a comprehensive earnings beat for its fiscal fourth quarter of 2026. The company reported revenue of $90.01 billion, an 18% year-over-year increase, significantly topping analyst expectations. Its non-GAAP earnings per share of $4.74 also exceeded the $4.24 consensus.
• Quanta Services (PWR): The infrastructure services company saw a jump of 12.1% after reporting second-quarter results that surpassed Wall Street's expectations, extending a series of quarterly earnings beats.
• Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII): The company climbed 11.3% in pre-market, driven by better-than-expected second-quarter earnings.
• TAL Education (TAL): Shares are up significantly after reporting robust first-quarter fiscal year 2027 financial results that dramatically beat analyst estimates.
• Meta Platforms (META): In contrast to Microsoft, Meta Platforms experienced a sharp drop yesterday after raising its forecast for AI investments, tempering broader tech sector enthusiasm.

Macroeconomic Landscape

Recent economic data continues to offer a mixed picture. Yesterday, investors assessed a barrage of economic data including June inflation readings and second-quarter GDP estimates. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for June fell by 0.1% monthly, while the core reading increased by 0.1%, below expectations. Advance gross domestic product data showed the U.S. economy grew by 1.5% in the second quarter, missing estimates of 2.1% growth, though consumer spending remained a bright spot. Separately, jobless claims for the week ended July 25 stood at 197,000, slightly better than the estimated 200,000. The Federal Reserve held its federal funds rate steady at 3.50% to 3.75% earlier this week, with analysts now anticipating potential rate increases later in the year, possibly starting in September, due to persistent inflation concerns amplified by elevated energy costs.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets: Friday, July 31, 2026

Global markets are navigating a complex landscape this Friday, with investors digesting the latest corporate earnings, inflation signals, and an active macroeconomic calendar. Asia showed mixed performance overnight, while European equities appear poised for a cautiously optimistic open, supported by some positive corporate news but tempered by persistent inflation concerns.

Asia Market Recap

• Asian indices closed the week on a mixed note. The Nikkei 225 posted modest gains, buoyed by a weaker yen which benefited exporters and strong corporate earnings reports from key technology firms.
• Conversely, the Hang Seng Index edged lower, reflecting ongoing concerns about mainland China's economic growth trajectory and regulatory headwinds in the technology sector. Investors remain watchful of property sector developments and their potential broader impact.

European Outlook

• European bourses are anticipated to open flat to slightly higher, following a broadly positive close in the U.S. and a mixed Asian session. The DAX is expected to find support from robust industrial data released earlier this week, though inflationary pressures continue to cap significant upside.
• The Euro Stoxx 50 faces a similar scenario, with market participants closely monitoring the final set of Q2 earnings reports from major corporations. Energy sector performance and consumer discretionary spending trends are key areas of focus.

Macro Calendar & Key Drivers

Today's macroeconomic calendar is relatively light, but market participants will be keenly focused on a few key data releases and their implications for central bank policy:

• Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate (July): This afternoon's preliminary inflation data for the Eurozone will be critical in shaping expectations for the European Central Bank's next policy moves. A higher-than-expected reading could reinforce hawkish sentiment, while a cooling trend might offer some relief.
• Japan Industrial Production (June Final): The final revision of Japan's industrial production figures could provide further insights into the health of the manufacturing sector and overall economic recovery.
• U.S. Core PCE Price Index (June): While a U.S. release, the Core PCE, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, will be closely watched globally for cues on the future path of interest rates, influencing currency markets and risk appetite.

Overall, markets are likely to exhibit cautious trading as investors look to close out the week and position themselves ahead of a potentially busy August with more central bank commentary and economic data on the horizon.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Friday, July 31, 2026

Global markets enter the final trading day of July with a cautious yet somewhat optimistic tone, as investors continue to parse the latest round of corporate earnings alongside evolving macroeconomic signals. Inflationary pressures remain a focal point, though recent indications of moderating price growth in some key sectors have provided a glimmer of hope for a potentially less aggressive central bank posture in the coming months. This delicate balance is expected to drive intraday volatility as participants position themselves ahead of the weekend.

Key Macro Drivers:

• Stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP revisions in several major economies.
• Ongoing scrutiny of energy prices and their impact on global supply chains.
• Anticipation of next week's inflation reports and their implications for monetary policy.

Indices Technical Outlook: Intraday Pivots and Key Levels

S&P 500 (SPX)

The benchmark S&P 500 demonstrated resilience yesterday, largely consolidating recent gains. For today's session, the immediate **intraday pivot is identified at 5,415**. A sustained move above this level could target **resistance at 5,450**, with further upside potential towards **5,475**. Conversely, a breach below the pivot may see the index test **initial support at 5,380**, and subsequently, the stronger **support zone around 5,355**.

Nasdaq Composite (NDAQ)

Technology stocks continue to attract flows, with the Nasdaq Composite showing underlying strength. The **intraday pivot for the Nasdaq stands at 19,675**. Bulls will look to maintain momentum above this level, aiming for **resistance at 19,800** and potentially **19,950**. On the downside, a fall below the pivot could bring **support at 19,550** into focus, with **19,400** serving as the next critical support.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average faced some headwinds yesterday, reflecting sector-specific pressures. The **intraday pivot for the DJIA is set at 40,025**. A push above this pivot could encounter **resistance at 40,200**, followed by **40,380**. Should the index falter, **initial support is anticipated at 39,850**, with a deeper test of **39,680** possible if selling pressure intensifies.

Market participants are advised to monitor volume trends and news flow closely as the week concludes.

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets: Macro and Volatility in Focus

As we conclude the week, market participants are keenly observing evolving dynamics in volatility, currency movements, and bond yields amidst a complex macroeconomic backdrop.

• Volatility Overview: The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) registered 17.09 as of July 30, 2026, remaining below its long-term average of 18.58, though it has increased by 17.83% over the past year. This generally subdued index-level volatility, however, masks significant divergence in cross-asset and single-stock measures. Regional equity volatilities show a split, with US and Emerging Market equities experiencing declining volatility, bolstered by a robust tech rally. Conversely, European equity volatility has seen an uptick, attributed to a resurgence in energy prices. A notable development is the Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index (VXN) trading significantly higher than the VIX, creating an unusually wide spread (11.8 points as of early July) that signals elevated implied volatility within the technology-heavy Nasdaq. Furthermore, the DSPXSM Index, measuring expected dispersion within S&P 500 stocks, surged to a six-year high, indicating heightened single-stock volatility particularly ahead of earnings season. This suggests a market characterized by lower aggregate risk perception but with considerable underlying dispersion and sector-specific uncertainty.
• USD Performance: The US Dollar Index (DXY) has shown a more balanced tone in July. After reaching a high near 101.50 around July 23-24, the DXY eased to 101.011 on July 27 and settled at 100.1629 on July 31. While it has weakened by 1.21% over the past month, the greenback remains up 1.03% over the last 12 months. The dollar continues to draw support from sticky inflation and the Federal Reserve's restrictive policy stance, maintaining a rate advantage. However, a softer June jobs report, with payrolls rising by only 57,000 and prior months revised lower, has tempered expectations for a more aggressive USD rally. Following the Fed's decision on July 29 to hold rates at 3.50%-3.75%, the dollar is expected to remain firm in the near term, with a potential softening bias towards year-end if US inflation continues to cool.
• Bond Yields: US Treasury yields have been a focal point, particularly after the latest Federal Reserve meeting. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note eased to 4.65% on July 31, concluding the week with a slight decrease. However, it has edged up by 0.17 points over the past month and remains 0.43 points higher than a year ago. As of July 29, the US Treasury yield curve remained upward-sloping, with the 10-year yield at 4.68% and the 2-year yield at 4.29%, yielding a positive 10-year vs. 2-year spread of +0.40%. A key development this week was the 30-year Treasury yield hitting a 19-year high of 5.2369% around July 30. This surge in long-term yields reflects investor concerns that the Fed may not be sufficiently resolute in combating persistent inflation, despite reiterating commitment to its 2% target. The widening spread between the two-year and 30-year yields further underscores expectations of a less aggressive short-term stance from the Fed. Persistent inflation pressures, partly driven by higher energy and food prices according to IMF projections, along with substantial Treasury issuance, continue to exert upward pressure on long-term yields.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Navigating Friday's Close Amidst Shifting Sentiment

Good morning, traders. As we head into the final trading day of July, markets are poised for a potentially volatile session, reflecting a week of mixed signals. Inflationary pressures continue to be a primary concern, though recent data points have offered a glimmer of hope for a potential peak, fueling cautious optimism for a less aggressive central bank stance in the near future. Equity markets enjoyed a robust mid-week rally, largely on the back of resilient corporate earnings, but paused yesterday as profit-taking emerged. Fixed income markets remain highly sensitive to inflation expectations, with yields fluctuating in anticipation of upcoming macro releases.

Today's Key Market Triggers:

• 10:00 AM ET: Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. A significant deviation from preliminary readings could influence risk appetite and inflation expectations.
• 12:00 PM ET: Remarks from a key Federal Reserve official. Any commentary on monetary policy, inflation, or economic outlook will be closely scrutinized for shifts in rhetoric.
• End-of-month rebalancing and potential profit-taking activities are anticipated to contribute to intraday volatility.

Equity Markets Playbook:

Equity indices are expected to trade within defined ranges today, with a bias towards consolidation after a strong week. The immediate upside momentum appears capped as investors digest recent gains and look for fresh catalysts.

• S&P 500 (ES_F):
  • Bullish Scenario: A break above 4,620, potentially triggered by stronger-than-expected consumer sentiment or dovish central bank commentary, could see a retest of 4,650.
  • Bearish Scenario: Failure to hold 4,580, especially on weak sentiment or hawkish remarks, could lead to a pull-back towards 4,550, with critical support at 4,530.
  • Risk Level: Elevated caution should be exercised below 4,550, signaling potential for a deeper correction.
• NASDAQ 100 (NQ_F):
  • Bullish Scenario: Sustained trading above 15,800 targets 16,000, driven by continued tech resilience.
  • Bearish Scenario: A breach of 15,650 could open the door for a move to 15,500, with 15,400 as a key support.
  • Risk Level: A close below 15,500 would suggest waning momentum.

Fixed Income Playbook:

Treasury yields are likely to react sharply to the Michigan Consumer Sentiment data, particularly the inflation expectations component. The 10-year Treasury yield remains a key barometer for broader market sentiment.

• US 10-Year Treasury Yield (TNX):
  • Scenarios: A strong inflation expectation component in the UoM survey could push yields towards 4.10%. Conversely, a weaker reading or dovish Fed comments might see yields ease towards 3.95%.
  • Key Levels: Resistance at 4.12%, support at 3.92%.
  • Risk Level: A break above 4.15% could signal renewed hawkish fears, while a drop below 3.90% may indicate increasing recessionary concerns.

FX Markets Playbook:

The US Dollar continues to hold firm against major currencies, bolstered by relative economic strength and ongoing Fed hawkishness. Today’s sentiment data and Fed speaker remarks will be crucial for short-term direction.

• EUR/USD:
  • Scenarios: A disappointing UoM survey could offer temporary relief to EUR/USD, targeting 1.0950. However, persistent USD strength suggests resistance at 1.0980. Downside remains towards 1.0880 if the USD strengthens further.
  • Key Levels: Support at 1.0870, Resistance at 1.0980.
  • Risk Level: A break below 1.0850 would signal a renewed bearish trend.
• USD/JPY:
  • Scenarios: Continues to be driven by yield differentials. A rise in US yields following strong data could push USD/JPY towards 141.50. Risk aversion or a significant dip in US yields could see a pullback to 140.20.
  • Key Levels: Support at 140.00, Resistance at 141.70.

Commodities Playbook:

Energy markets remain focused on supply dynamics and global demand outlook, while gold maintains its role as a safe-haven asset amidst inflationary concerns.

• Crude Oil (WTI):
  • Scenarios: Lingering supply concerns could support WTI towards $82.50. However, any signs of weakening global demand or robust inventory builds might pressure prices towards $79.80.
  • Key Levels: Support at $79.50, Resistance at $82.80.
• Gold (XAU/USD):
  • Scenarios: Gold is likely to react to inflation expectations and real yields. A dip in yields or heightened risk aversion could see gold test $2,000. Sustained high real yields might push it towards $1,970.
  • Key Levels: Support at $1,970, Resistance at $2,005.

Disclaimer: This material is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Happy Trading and have a productive Friday!